2026 ARR Target Assessment

FP&A Annual Review

2026 New ARR
Target Assessment

Q1 Performance Review and Gap Analysis

The company closed $5.1M in new ARR in 2025 and has set a $18M target for 2026, a 3.5x growth requirement. Q1 2026 delivered $1.62M (9% attainment) with $29M open pipeline entering Q2. This review assesses 2025 performance, Q1-26 results, pipeline health, and recommends actions to close the gap.

Home assignment submitted by Aviad Dahan-Weiss

2025 Actuals vs 2026 Targets

Motion	2025	Mix	2026 Target	Mix	Growth
Inbound	$2.7M	53%	$7.2M	40%	2.6x
Outbound	$1.5M	29%	$5.4M	30%	3.7x
Partners	$0.9M	18%	$5.4M	30%	5.9x
Total	$5.1M	100%	$18.0M	100%	3.5x

2025 Metrics

Jan 1 Starting Pipeline i37 deals with create date = Jan 1, 2025. Of those, 7 won within 2025 (close date in 2025).

$11.3M

37 deals → 20.0% won

$2.3M converted in 2025

Pipeline Created in 2025 i113 deals with create date Jan 2 to Dec 31, 2025. Of those, 9 won within 2025.

$35.7M

113 deals → 8.0% won

$2.8M converted in 2025

H1 2025 New Pipeline i65 deals created Jan 2 to Jun 30, 2025. Of those, 9 won within 2025.

$19.9M

65 deals → 14.3% won

$2.8M converted in 2025

H2 2025 New Pipeline i48 deals created Jul 1 to Dec 31, 2025. None converted to won within 2025 — typical given 204-day avg cycle.

$15.8M

48 deals → 0.0% won

Long cycle, no 2025 closes

Avg Sales Cycle iClosed Won deals with close date in 2025: average days from create to close = 204 days.

204 days (2.2q)

2025 closed won cohort

ASP (Avg Selling Price) i2025 close cohort: 13 wins in US ($319K avg), 3 in ROW ($318K avg), 0 in EMEA. Total 16 deals, $5.1M.

$319K

13 US · 3 ROW · 0 EMEA

Historical Performance

2025 Closed Won Analysis

16 deals, $5.1M. 13 wins from US, 3 from ROW (~$0.95M). EMEA closed zero despite $14.1M pipeline created.

Region:

Analysis

US leads, ROW shows potential. 13 wins came from US and 3 from ROW, with nearly identical ASP (~$319K). ROW's single G2000 deal at $394K highlights enterprise potential in newer markets.

⚠ EMEA: Zero wins, critical risk. Despite $14.1M in pipeline created in 2025 (of which $8.5M in H1), EMEA closed zero deals. 59% of that pipeline ($8.3M) remains open, accumulating age risk and likely to be lost without focused intervention.

F1000 delivers premium ASP at $451K (+43% vs G2000, +80% vs Other). Prioritizing F1000 lifts ARR per deal without increasing deal count.

Partners and Inbound fastest to close at 149 and 200 days respectively vs Outbound at 244 days. Conversion rates follow the same pattern.

Note: 16 deals is a small sample. Directional insights are meaningful; statistical significance is limited.

New ARR by Quarter (Closed Won)

ASP by Segment (clickable)

Sales Cycle by Motion (clickable)

$1.62M closed in Q1 2026

9% of the $18M annual target achieved in one quarter · 91% above Q1-25 · 4 deals closed

Is $1.62M a positive signal for 2026?

→ See pipeline and analysis slides

Year over Year

Q1 2026 Review

Region:

Segment:

Analysis

ARR up 91% from Q1-25 ($848K to $1.62M). Deal count doubled (2 to 4).

Partners most efficient. 2 partner deals, $761K (47% of ARR), zero losses. Q1-25 had 1 win, $396K. +92% partner ARR growth.

First Outbound F1000 win in US ($402K) validates the enterprise motion. Zero Outbound wins in Q1-25.

⚠ Inbound win rate collapsed from 100% (1W/0L in Q1-25) to 10% (1W/9L in Q1-26). Volume grew but conversion fell sharply — a quality signal.

ASP of $404K is down 5% vs Q1-25 ($424K) but +27% above the 2025 full-year ASP ($319K). Positive deal quality signal overall.

⚠ EMEA zero again. No EMEA wins in Q1-26. Region holds 40% of open pipeline ($11.6M) with no proven conversion.

Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026

Metric	Q1 2025	Q1 2026	Change

Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026 by Motion (click to filter)

Motion	Q1 2025 (W/L)	Q1 2026 (W/L)	Change

Pipeline Trend

Quarterly Pipeline Opening Balance

S5 jumped from $2.3M (Q1-26) to $5.4M in Q2-26 — the highest ever — a positive signal for Q2 close activity.

Stage	Q1-25	Q2-25	Q3-25	Q4-25	Q1-26	Q2-26 ▶
S1	$11.3M	$11.9M	$8.0M	$7.1M	$3.5M	$5.5M
S2	—	$4.9M	$7.3M	$7.9M	$7.2M	$9.1M ↑
S3	—	$3.1M	$4.0M	$2.0M	$5.1M	$4.1M
S4	—	$0.3M	$2.0M	$3.3M	$5.2M	$5.0M
S5	—	—	$1.8M	$2.9M	$2.3M	$5.4M ↑↑
S6	—	—	—	$0.2M	—	—
Total	$11.3M	$20.3M	$23.2M	$23.5M	$23.2M	$29.0M ↑

Methodology: Deals with a create date of Jan 1, 2025 are treated as opening pipeline for Q1-2025, not as new pipeline created during 2025.

Total Open Pipeline by Quarter ($M)

Historical Funnel (2025 Created Deals)

We retained open deals in the analysis rather than excluding them, as assuming all open pipeline will close in 2026 would be unrealistic. Results reflect total funnel including open opportunities.

ARR Entering Stage

→ Next S%

Win%

Open

Key Takeaways

✓ Growing pipeline depth. Total open pipeline grew from $20.3M (Q2-25) to $29.0M (Q2-26), a 43% year-over-year increase, showing systematic funnel building.

✓ S5 surge is the most encouraging signal. $5.4M in S5 (Q2-26) is the highest ever. Historical S5-to-Won rate is ~33% (calculated as $5.5M won from S6 / $16.7M that entered S5 in the 2025 cohort).

△ S2 is large but early-stage. $9.1M in S2 at 14% historical conversion yields ~$1.3M. Maturing these deals quickly is important to unlock their value.

Pipeline Health

Open Pipeline Analysis

$29M open

89 deals entering Q2. Stage-weighted yield: $6.1M (21% effective rate). Significant new pipeline required.

Analysis

Motion mix improving. 55% of open pipeline is Inbound ($16M) vs 44% of full 2025 cohort, reflecting better unit economics. Partners underweighted at 8% ($2.4M) vs $5.4M annual target. At the 23% effective conversion rate, Partners yields approximately $550K expected (23% of $2.4M), a gap that warrants focused attention.

✓ F1000 at 42% of open pipeline ($12.1M), an improvement vs 2025 mix. Higher ASP will support ARR growth even with lower deal count.

⚠ EMEA holds 40% ($11.6M) of open pipeline, up from ~30% of the 2025 FY cohort. EMEA has never closed a deal. Without a fix, this pipeline converts at 0%, not 23%, creating a misleading coverage picture.

Required pipeline math: The stage-weighted expected yield of $6.1M vs $16.4M remaining target leaves a $10.3M gap, requiring $44.8M of new Q2-Q4 pipeline at 23% win rate.

Required Pipeline Math

	Pipeline	Conv. Rate	New ARR
Q1 2026 Closed		already closed	$1.62M
Q2-26 Open Pipeline	$29.0M	21% stage-weighted	$6.1M
Additional Pipeline Needed	$44.8M	23% win rate	$10.3M
Annual Target			$18.0M

Generating $44.8M in new pipeline at 23% win rate is a significant challenge for Q2 through Q4

Stage-Weighted Expected Yield

Each bar shows open pipeline; shaded fill = expected yield at historical win rate

Pipeline Distribution

Action Plan

Recommendations

What Is Working

📈 ARR Momentum (Full Year 2025 to Q1-26)

Q4-25 was $2.5M (5x Q1-25). Q1-26 at $1.6M is already 2x Q1-25.
Trajectory is improving quarter over quarter.
Weekly Forecast. Maintain cadence and deal velocity tracking.

💰 Inbound Unit Economics (2025 and Q2-26 Pipeline)

53% of 2025 ARR and 55% of current open pipeline is Inbound.
ASP $319K, 200-day cycle, strongest volume motion.
Marketing ROI. Measure by channel and invest in the most efficient sources.
ICP Validation. Validate targeting jointly with sales and marketing. Build ICP scoring and run campaigns aimed at the defined ICP.

🏆 F1000 Segment Delivers Premium ARR (2025)

F1000 ASP $451K, 43% above G2000 and 80% above Other.
42% of open pipeline is F1000 ($12.1M), an improvement in mix.
F1000 Focus. Build dedicated AE pods and create a reference customer program.

🤝 Partners Fastest to Close (2025 and Q1-26)

149-day avg cycle vs 200-day Inbound. Q1-26: 2 wins, 0 losses.
Partner Growth. Expand the partner network, set quarterly ARR targets, and hire a dedicated channel manager.

Change Required

🚫 EMEA: 17 Months, Zero Wins

40% of Q2 pipeline ($11.6M) sits in EMEA with 0% proven conversion.
Root Cause Review. Conduct a deep-dive with the EMEA team. Examine cycle times, competitive dynamics, market fit, and resource gaps.
Pipeline Audit. Audit all open EMEA deals and qualify or disqualify based on an honest assessment.
Reallocate Resources. Stop allocating quota and SDR time to EMEA until root cause is resolved.

⌛ Sales Cycle Too Long?

204-day avg means deals created in Q3-2026 may not close in 2026. Outbound at 244 days is the most critical area.
Cycle Research. Investigate what drove shorter cycles historically. Identify whether automation, support resources, or increased customer engagement can reduce time to close.
POC Time-Box. Limit the POC timeframe. Require exec sponsor at S3 and above.
Close Plans. Add mutual close plan at S3 and conduct weekly reviews for S4 and above.

📉 Partners Need 5.9x Growth

$0.9M closed in 2025 vs a $5.4M target. Current open pipeline of $2.4M yields ~$550K at the stage-weighted rate (23% of $2.4M).
Target basis: 2026 quota $5.4M ÷ 2025 actuals $0.9M = 5.9x. With $2.4M in open pipeline, conversion alone falls short — new partner acquisition is the critical gap.
F1000 Priority. Focus partner engagement on F1000 deals to maximize ARR per engagement.
Partnership Plan. Work with the business to develop a plan to bring more partners in order to meet the target.

🎯 Inbound Pipeline Quality Declining

Q1-25 cohort: 16.8% win rate. Q2 to Q4-25 new pipeline: 11.9% win rate. Declining as volume grows.
Q1-2026 loss increase: determine if it's deliberate early disqualification (positive — tighter funnel) or genuine demand quality decline (negative — fix ICP targeting before H2 compounds the issue).
ICP Scorecard. Implement at S1. Disqualify below-threshold leads early.
Conversion Tracking. Track weekly conversion rate as a leading indicator of pipeline health.